The other side · 2014 – 2024

Modi’s India is 13% richer and 66% safer

The same two comparisons, read from the other direction. Where the front page asks what India would have lost, this asks what it gained — across the economy, health, infrastructure and internal security.

Income · real GDP per capita, PPP

+13%

$8305 projected · $9416 actual

The same comparison, the other way round

Every figure here is the India that actually happened, measured against the estimated alternative. Read from the other direction, the same numbers describe what that alternative would have cost.

Switch to Rahul’s India

Security · all-theatre fatalities a year

−66%

2,020 a year before 2014 · 690 after

2004–2013 2014–2024annual averages, one scale

Jammu & Kashmir712 → 257/yr-64%
Naxal / LWE664 → 295/yr-56%
Bomb blasts321 → 141/yr-56%
Civilians killed408 → 123/yr-70%
Forces killed289 → 109/yr-62%

02 — sector

Economy

Output, trade and the buffer that protects the rupee.

One tile per indicator — Modi’s India measured against Rahul’s India over the same years. Shading tracks the size of the difference.

Nominal GDP+35%

USD · $2.79tn → $3.76tn

Output roughly doubled in dollar terms across the decade, outpacing what comparable economies managed from the same starting point.

Total exports of goods and services+9%

USD · $759.8bn → $829.8bn

Goods and services sold abroad kept climbing through the pandemic dip and past it, led by services rather than merchandise.

Total FDI inflow+210%

USD · $8.8bn → $27.1bn

Foreign direct investment held near record levels through a decade in which global flows to emerging markets contracted.

Foreign exchange reserves+17%

USD · $340.7bn → $399.2bn

Reserves passed $600bn, giving the Reserve Bank far deeper cover against currency pressure than it held in 2013.

Electronics production+80%

USD · $275.1bn → $494.1bn

Electronics output multiplied as assembly moved onshore, turning a net importer of handsets into an exporter.

03 — sector

Health

Who survives childhood, and who is bankrupted by falling ill.

One tile per indicator — Modi’s India measured against Rahul’s India over the same years. Shading tracks the size of the difference.

Under-five mortality rate-28%

per 1,000 births · 36.69 → 26.60

Under-five deaths nearly halved. India pulled further ahead of the countries that shared its trajectory before 2014.

Neonatal mortality rate-16%

per 1,000 births · 19.91 → 16.70

Deaths in the first month of life fell steadily, the hardest part of child mortality to move.

Catastrophic health spending (health-coverage proxy)-50%

% of population · 40.71 → 20.40

The share of households pushed past a tenth of their budget by medical bills fell by half.

Out-of-pocket health expenditure as share of total h-24%

% of health spend · 57.59 → 43.89

Households now pay a far smaller share of the health bill directly, as public financing took over more of it.

Infant mortality rate-14%

per 1,000 births · 26.95 → 23.30

Infant deaths continued their long decline and stayed below the counterfactual throughout.

04 — sector

Infrastructure

The physical stock the economy runs on.

One tile per indicator — Modi’s India measured against Rahul’s India over the same years. Shading tracks the size of the difference.

National Highway network+61%

km · 91,287 → 146,572

The national highway network grew by more than half, with four-lane and access-controlled stock rising fastest.

Operational metro rail network+366%

km · 248 → 1155

Operational metro track grew several times over, from two cities of any scale to more than twenty.

Cargo handled by all Indian ports+72%

million tonnes · 973 → 1668

Cargo through Indian ports rose steadily while turnaround times roughly halved.

Railway electrified route length+194%

route-km · 21,614 → 63,456

Broad-gauge electrification moved from a minority of the network to almost all of it.

Cities with operational metro systems+420%

cities · 5.00 → 26.00

Metro systems opened in city after city, spreading urban rail well beyond the metros that had it in 2014.

05 — sector

Security

Violence across the three theatres, and the bombs.

One tile per indicator — Modi’s India measured against Rahul’s India over the same years. Shading tracks the size of the difference.

J&K civilian deaths from terrorism-75%

deaths · 1531 → 385

Civilian deaths from terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir fell to a fraction of the previous decade's toll.

Civilian deaths from LWE-69%

deaths · 4766 → 1495

Civilian deaths in Maoist-affected districts fell sharply as the affected area contracted.

Security personnel killed by LWE-73%

deaths · 1851 → 509

Security-force losses to left-wing extremism fell by roughly three quarters.

Northeast civilian deaths-76%

deaths · 2476 → 605

Northeast civilian deaths fell furthest of any theatre, alongside a series of settlements.

Terrorism/insurgency explosion incidents-61%

incidents · 3425 → 1337

Explosion incidents across all theatres fell by well over half, and by 2024 stood at a fifth of the 2004 level.

Supplementary analysis

Everyday India — 13 leads

The later period records faster normalised improvement on 13 of the 20 selected basic lived-development measures. Counted separately from the national indicators above.

Healthcare access: Households with health insurance or health-financing coverage
Women's health: Currently married women using any family-planning method · Unmet need for family planning
Maternal health: Mothers receiving first antenatal check-up in the first trimester · Mothers receiving four or more antenatal visits · Mothers receiving postnatal care within two days of delivery
Maternal nutrition: Mothers taking iron and folic acid for 100 or more days
Child health: Children receiving three doses of polio vaccine · Children receiving measles or first MCV vaccination
Public healthcare: Children receiving most vaccinations through public health facilities
Child nutrition: Children under five who are wasted · Children under five who are severely wasted
Women's safety: Ever-married women reporting spousal violence

3 further measures are broadly comparable despite the later period inheriting much higher starting coverage, and 4 show faster earlier-period progress. See all 20.

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