All theatres · indicator 211
Terrorism/insurgency explosion incidents
Modi aheadNo comparable cross-country series exists for this measure, so no synthetic counterfactual can be estimated. The verdict here compares observed Indian figures over time — a weaker basis than the estimated indicators.
2014
3425
baseline
2024
1337
latest observed
Change
-61%
2014 vs latest observed
What this measures
Terrorism/insurgency explosion incidents, in incidents. A falling number is an improvement. Reported by South Asia Terrorism Portal.
It stood at 3425 in 2014, and under Modi’s current India reached 1337 by 2024 — a fall of 61%. That is an improvement against India’s pre-2014 figure.
No comparison country reports an equivalent series, so there is no Rahul's India to compare against. This is a before-and-after reading, not a treatment effect.
Year by year
incidents · annual series, 2004–2024. Bars from 2014 in orange. No counterfactual is estimated — no comparator country reports an equivalent series.
Decade totals
incidents · South Asia Terrorism Portal
Why no counterfactual
India-only. SATP counts explosion incidents across all theatres; no comparator country publishes an equivalent series, so no counterfactual can be estimated.
Observation quality
- 2010
- 258
- 2014
- 3425
- 2024
- 1337
- 2026
- 1337
Comparable observation for the requested year · 2010
Comparable observation for the requested year · 2004–2014 total
Comparable observation for the requested year · 2015–2024 total
Requested year not yet published; latest observation repeated · 2015–2024 total
Windows here are 2004–2014 and 2015–2024, so the two decades do not overlap — unlike the other nine parameters, whose official comparison counts 2014 in both. Broader than urban bombings: includes IED attacks by Maoist/LWE groups, J&K militancy, Northeast insurgencies and the rest of India.
The counterfactual is 'India without the 2014 structural break', estimated from comparator countries. It is not a forecast of any individual's policies.