Northeast insurgency · indicator 209

Northeast civilian deaths

Modi ahead

No comparable cross-country series exists for this measure, so no synthetic counterfactual can be estimated. The verdict here compares observed Indian figures over time — a weaker basis than the estimated indicators.

2014

2476

baseline

2024

605

latest observed

Change

-76%

2014 vs latest observed

What this measures

Northeast civilian deaths, in deaths. A falling number is an improvement. Reported by South Asia Terrorism Portal (annual) · MHA/PIB (decade summary).

It stood at 2476 in 2014, and under Modi’s current India reached 605 by 2024 — a fall of 76%. That is an improvement against India’s pre-2014 figure.

No comparison country reports an equivalent series, so there is no Rahul's India to compare against. This is a before-and-after reading, not a treatment effect.

Year by year

deaths · annual series, 2000–2024. Bars from 2014 in orange. No counterfactual is estimated — no comparator country reports an equivalent series.

Decade totals

deaths · South Asia Terrorism Portal (annual) · MHA/PIB (decade summary)

Why no counterfactual

Decade totals for India only, from Ministry of Home Affairs reporting. No comparator country publishes an equivalent series, and there is no annual breakdown, so no counterfactual can be estimated.

Observation quality

2010: 2476
2014: 2476
2024: 605
2026: 605

Absolute totals recovered from SATP year-wise fatality data, which the original summary left blank. SATP gives -76% against the Home Ministry's reported -89%. These diverge by more than 12 points — the two sources count the theatre's boundaries differently, so treat the direction as solid and the magnitude as contested.

The counterfactual is 'India without the 2014 structural break', estimated from comparator countries. It is not a forecast of any individual's policies.