Manufacturing and Defence · indicator 50
Defence exports
Modi aheadNo comparable cross-country series exists for this measure, so no synthetic counterfactual can be estimated. The verdict here compares observed Indian figures over time — a weaker basis than the estimated indicators.
2014
686
baseline
2026
38,424
latest observed
Change
+5501%
2014 vs latest observed
What this measures
Defence exports, in INR crore. A rising number is an improvement. Reported by Ministry of Defence / Department of Defence Production / PIB.
It stood at 686 in 2014, and under Modi’s current India reached 38,424 by 2026 — a rise of 5501%. That is an improvement against India’s pre-2014 figure.
No comparison country reports an equivalent series, so there is no Rahul's India to compare against. This is a before-and-after reading, not a treatment effect.
Decade totals
INR crore · Ministry of Defence / Department of Defence Production / PIB
Why no counterfactual
defence exports; SIPRI TIV not on a comparable annual basis here
Observation quality
- 2010
- —
- 2014
- 686
- 2024
- 21,083
- 2026
- 38,424
No sufficiently comparable observation located
Comparable observation for the requested year · FY2013-14
Comparable observation for the requested year · FY2023-24
Comparable observation for the requested year · FY2025-26
The counterfactual is 'India without the 2014 structural break', estimated from comparator countries. It is not a forecast of any individual's policies.