Northeast insurgency · indicator 210
Northeast security-force deaths
Modi aheadNo comparable cross-country series exists for this measure, so no synthetic counterfactual can be estimated. The verdict here compares observed Indian figures over time — a weaker basis than the estimated indicators.
2014
580
baseline
2024
163
latest observed
Change
-72%
2014 vs latest observed
What this measures
Northeast security-force deaths, in deaths. A falling number is an improvement. Reported by South Asia Terrorism Portal (annual) · MHA/PIB (decade summary).
It stood at 580 in 2014, and under Modi’s current India reached 163 by 2024 — a fall of 72%. That is an improvement against India’s pre-2014 figure.
No comparison country reports an equivalent series, so there is no Rahul's India to compare against. This is a before-and-after reading, not a treatment effect.
Year by year
deaths · annual series, 2000–2024. Bars from 2014 in orange. No counterfactual is estimated — no comparator country reports an equivalent series.
Decade totals
deaths · South Asia Terrorism Portal (annual) · MHA/PIB (decade summary)
Why no counterfactual
Decade totals for India only, from Ministry of Home Affairs reporting. No comparator country publishes an equivalent series, and there is no annual breakdown, so no counterfactual can be estimated.
Observation quality
- 2010
- 580
- 2014
- 580
- 2024
- 163
- 2026
- 163
Nearest published observation used · 2004-2014 total
Nearest published observation used · 2004-2014 total
Nearest published observation used · 2014-2024 total
Requested year not yet published; latest observation repeated · 2014-2024 total
Absolute totals recovered from SATP year-wise fatality data, which the original summary left blank. SATP gives -72% against the Home Ministry's reported -70%.
The counterfactual is 'India without the 2014 structural break', estimated from comparator countries. It is not a forecast of any individual's policies.