Northeast insurgency · indicator 208

Northeast insurgency incidents

Modi ahead

No comparable cross-country series exists for this measure, so no synthetic counterfactual can be estimated. The verdict here compares observed Indian figures over time — a weaker basis than the estimated indicators.

2014

11,000

baseline

2024

3428

latest observed

Change

-69%

2014 vs latest observed

What this measures

Northeast insurgency incidents, in incidents. A falling number is an improvement. Reported by Ministry of Home Affairs / PIB.

It stood at 11,000 in 2014, and under Modi’s current India reached 3428 by 2024 — a fall of 69%. That is an improvement against India’s pre-2014 figure.

No comparison country reports an equivalent series, so there is no Rahul's India to compare against. This is a before-and-after reading, not a treatment effect.

Year by year

incidents · annual series, 2007–2024. Bars from 2014 in orange. No counterfactual is estimated — no comparator country reports an equivalent series.

Decade totals

incidents · Ministry of Home Affairs / PIB

Why no counterfactual

Decade totals for India only, from Ministry of Home Affairs reporting. No comparator country publishes an equivalent series, and there is no annual breakdown, so no counterfactual can be estimated.

Observation quality

2010: 11,000
2014: 11,000
2024: 3428
2026: 3428

Pre-2014 covers 2004–2014 and post-2014 covers 2014–2024; official comparisons include 2014 in both, so treat as decade-level. pre-2014 total is approximate.

The counterfactual is 'India without the 2014 structural break', estimated from comparator countries. It is not a forecast of any individual's policies.