Poverty, Healthcare and Human Development · indicator 36
Extreme poverty
Modi aheadNo comparable cross-country series exists for this measure, so no synthetic counterfactual can be estimated. The verdict here compares observed Indian figures over time — a weaker basis than the estimated indicators.
2010
16.20
baseline
2024
2.30
latest observed
Change
-86%
2014 vs latest observed
What this measures
Extreme poverty, in percent of population; lower is better. A falling number is an improvement. Reported by World Bank revised international poverty estimates.
It stood at 16.20 in 2010, and under Modi’s current India reached 2.30 by 2024 — a fall of 86%. That is an improvement against India’s pre-2014 figure.
No comparison country reports an equivalent series, so there is no Rahul's India to compare against. This is a before-and-after reading, not a treatment effect.
Decade totals
percent of population; lower is better · World Bank revised international poverty estimates
Why no counterfactual
irregular survey years
Observation quality
- 2010
- 16.20
- 2014
- —
- 2024
- 2.30
- 2026
- 2.30
Nearest published observation used · 2011-12
No sufficiently comparable observation located
Nearest published observation used · 2022-23
Requested year not yet published; latest observation repeated · 2022-23
Poverty lines and historical estimates are periodically revised.
The counterfactual is 'India without the 2014 structural break', estimated from comparator countries. It is not a forecast of any individual's policies.