Left-wing extremism · indicator 205

Naxal / LWE violent incidents

Modi ahead

No comparable cross-country series exists for this measure, so no synthetic counterfactual can be estimated. The verdict here compares observed Indian figures over time — a weaker basis than the estimated indicators.

2014

16,463

baseline

2024

7700

latest observed

Change

-53%

2014 vs latest observed

What this measures

Naxal / LWE violent incidents, in incidents. A falling number is an improvement. Reported by Ministry of Home Affairs / PIB.

It stood at 16,463 in 2014, and under Modi’s current India reached 7700 by 2024 — a fall of 53%. That is an improvement against India’s pre-2014 figure.

No comparison country reports an equivalent series, so there is no Rahul's India to compare against. This is a before-and-after reading, not a treatment effect.

Decade totals

incidents · Ministry of Home Affairs / PIB

Why no counterfactual

Decade totals for India only, from Ministry of Home Affairs reporting. No comparator country publishes an equivalent series, and there is no annual breakdown, so no counterfactual can be estimated.

Observation quality

2010: 16,463
2014: 16,463
2024: 7700
2026: 7700

Pre-2014 covers 2004–2014 and post-2014 covers 2014–2024; official comparisons include 2014 in both, so treat as decade-level. post-2014 total is approximate.

The counterfactual is 'India without the 2014 structural break', estimated from comparator countries. It is not a forecast of any individual's policies.